Land use, vegetation, albedo, and soil-type data are combined in a global model that accounts for roofs and roads at near their actual resolution to quantify the effects of urban surface and white roofs on climate. In 2005, ~0.128% of the Earth’s surface contained urban landcover, half of which was vegetated. Urban landcover was modeled over 20 years to increase gross global warming (warming before cooling due to aerosols and albedo change are accounted for) by 0.06-0.11 K and population-weighted warming by 0.16-0.31 K, based on two simulations under different conditions. As such, the urban heat island (UHI) effect may contribute to 2-4% of gross global warming, although the uncertainty range is likely larger than the model range presented, and more verification is needed. This may be the first estimate of the UHI effect derived from a global model while considering both UHI local heating and large-scale feedbacks.

Previous data estimates of the global UHI, which considered the effect of urban areas but did not treat feedbacks or isolate temperature change due to urban surfaces from other causes of urban temperature change, imply a smaller UHI effect but of similar order. White roofs change surface albedo and affect energy demand. A worldwide conversion to white roofs, accounting for their albedo effect only, was calculated to cool population-weighted temperatures by ~0.02 K but to warm the Earth overall by ~0.07 K. White-roof local cooling may also affect energy use, thus emissions, a factor not accounted for here. As such, conclusions here regarding white roofs apply only to the assumptions made.